Canada’s housing market had a slow start in 2025, and while the pace of sales is picking up, prices are likely to “tread water” for the foreseeable future, says Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper.
According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada recorded virtually no change in the third quarter of 2025, increasing just 0.1 per cent year-over-year to $816,500.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, home prices declined 1.2 per cent, driven by depreciation in many major markets across the country in recent months.
Reflecting price declines primarily in Toronto and Vancouver, Royal LePage lowered its national year-end forecast, and now anticipates prices to land at one per cent above Q4 2024.
“Canada’s housing market is shifting toward balance, as easing prices, rising listings and renewed rate cuts improve affordability across most regions,” said Soper. “For the first time in years, buyers – especially in previously supply-strapped markets – have real choice and negotiating power. With confidence returning and further rate reductions expected into early 2026, we anticipate noticeably stronger activity by the spring.”
Prices by property type
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and regionally, in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets.
When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.2 per cent year-over-year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.6 per cent to $580,700.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium declined 1.1 and 1.9 per cent, respectively.
Compared to the peak of pandemic pricing in the spring of 2022, national home prices have come down by approximately five per cent, largely due to depreciation in Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are currently sitting more than 12 per cent below the peak.
Meanwhile, home prices have continued to appreciate in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.
“Buyer sentiment is being influenced by a complex mix of economic and psychological factors,” said Soper. “Despite materially improved affordability in major cities, many Canadians – particularly younger ones – remain cautious amid high post-pandemic living costs, perceived job uncertainty, and general unease about our economic prospects. It’s understandable that some are waiting before making such a significant purchase.”
Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by real estate valuation company RPS Real Property Solutions.
What’s next?
Soper said Royal LePage expects the uptick in sales that began this summer will continue, setting the stage for a lively 2026 market, provided that consumer confidence rebuilds.
“Prices are likely to tread water in the near term, as improved affordability and lower borrowing costs draw more buyers back to the table,” he said. “Finally, the return-to-office trend should renew demand in urban cores, even as lower prices in suburban and rural communities continue to attract families – just not at the scale we saw during the pandemic.”
